Weather Conditions Improve Livestock Prospects

Feed and Forage Conditions: Improved moisture conditions across the northern Great Plains and western Corn Belt during August have resulted in much-improved corn and soybean yields.

Improved Moisture Conditions Raise Yields/Production Estimates

Improved moisture conditions across the northern Great Plains and western Corn Belt during August have resulted in much improved corn and soybean yield estimates. Corn production is forecast at 11.1 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the August estimate and fractionally above a year ago. If realized, this would be the second largest crop on record. However, production of the other feed grains (sorghum, barley, and oats) is expected to decline.

Total feed grain production (including corn) this year is expected to be up marginally from last year and down nearly 6 percent from the 2004/05 crop. Projected ending corn stocks were pulled down to 1.22 billion bushels and the 2006/07 farm price of corn is expected to average $2.15 to $2.55 per bushel, up from $1.99 a bushel in 2005/06 and $2.06 2 years ago.

Estimated global 2006/07 coarse grain production was lowered to 969.4 million metric tons, and world coarse grain ending stocks were lowered to 125.8 million tons. These declines were due to reductions in the European Union-25, Former Soviet Union-12, Canada, and Australia.

Similarly the soybean crop is forecast at 3.09 billion bushels, again the second largest crop on record. Yield prospects have increased across the Corn Belt and most of the northern and central Great Plains. Consequently, soybean meal production is projected at 42,035 thousand short tons, up 2.5 percent from last year and up 3 percent from 2004/05. Soybean meal prices are expected to average $147.5 to $177.5 per short ton, down from $173.50 in 2005/06 and $182.89 in 2004/05.

Further Information

For more information view the full Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - September 2006 (pdf)

September 2006