Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

• USDA Quarterly Report: December 2010
• What It All Means - Expert Commentary
• In the News - What the Media Says
• Graph Data from the Report
• Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 19-page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data that is not shown in this article, please click here

USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: December 2010

US Hog Inventory Down One Per Cent

United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December 2010 was 64.3 million head. This was down one per cent from 1 December 2009, and down two per cent from 1 September 2010.

Breeding inventory, at 5.78 million head, was down one per cent from last year but up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 58.5 million head, was down one per cent from last year, and down two per cent from last quarter.

The September-November 2010 pig crop, at 28.2 million head, was down slightly from 2009. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.85 million head, down two per cent from 2009. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 per cent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 9.89 for the September-November 2010 period, compared to 9.70 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.70 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.00 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

United States hog producers intend to have 2.86 million sows farrow during the December 2010-February 2011 quarter, down one per cent from the actual farrowings during the December 2009-February 2010 quarter, and down five per cent from December 2008-February 2009 quarter. Intended farrowings for March-May 2011, at 2.86 million sows, are down two per cent from 2010 and down five per cent from 2009.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head but raised by contractees, accounted for 45 per cent of the total United States hog inventory, up from 44 per cent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2009 through September 2010 were reviewed using slaughter, death loss and current import and export data. Based on this review, an adjustment of less than one half of one per cent was made to the September 2010 total inventory. An adjustment of less than one per cent was made to the June 2010 total inventory while an adjustment of less than two per cent was made to the March-May 2010 pig crop.

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What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain Ron Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report USDA's December hogs and pigs report said the hog herd was slightly smaller than pre-release trade forecasts. USDA said the market inventory was down 0.8 per cent, writes Ron Plain.

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc Market Preview: No Surprises in Pig Crop Report Economist Steve Meyer writes, "USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, released Monday afternoon, indicated hog inventories quite close to expected levels, but also contains production forecasts that will likely be viewed as bullish in Tuesday’s trading. Analysts are calling the report anywhere from neutral to moderately bullish."

Jim Long Pork Commentary: USDA December Hogs and Pigs Report There were several analysts (Chicken Little economists) that predicted that the US market inventory would be higher than a year ago in the USDA December report. This type of mindset comes from the usual suspects that continue to ignore the reality of a production base that has been losing money this past quarter, writes Jim Long.

Chris Hurt, Purdue University Pork Prices - Sky's the Limit for 2011? Chris Hurt comments on the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report.

More to follow soon...

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In The News - What The Media Says

• Swine Breeding Herd Down at Start of December - AgEBB
• CME: Highlights of Latest Pig Crop Report - CME

More to follow soon.....

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Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of 1 December Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, December 2010 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 2010