Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

• USDA Quarterly Report: September 2010
• What It All Means - Expert Commentary
• In the News - What the Media Says
• Graph Data from the Report
• Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 23-page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, please click here

USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: September 2010

US Hog Inventory down Three Per Cent

US inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September 2010 was 65.0 million head. This was down 3 per cent from 1 September 2009 but up 1 per cent from 1 June 2010.

Breeding inventory, at 5.77 million head, was down 2 per cent from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.2 million head, was down 3 per cent from last year but up 1 per cent from last quarter.

The June-August 2010 pig crop, at 28.5 million head, was down 1 per cent from 2009 and down 3 per cent from 2008. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.91 million head, down 2 per cent from 2009 and down 6 per cent from 2008. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 per cent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.81 for the June-August 2010 period, compared to 9.70 last year. The litter rate equaled the record for pigs saved per litter set during the March-May 2010 period. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.80 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.90 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

US hog producers intend to have 2.88 million sows farrow during the September-November 2010 quarter, down 1 per cent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2009 and down 5 per cent from 2008. Intended farrowings for December 2010-February 2011, at 2.89 million sows, are up slightly from 2010 but down 4 per cent from 2009.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 43 per cent of the total US hog inventory, down from 46 per cent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2009 through June 2010 were reviewed using slaughter, death loss and current import and export data. Based on this review, adjustments of less than one half of one per cent were made to the March 2010 total inventory and June 2010 total inventory. An adjustment of less than one per cent was made to the December 2009-February 2010 pig crop.

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What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain Ron Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report USDA's September hogs and pigs report was right on pre-release trade forecasts, writes Ron Plain.

Dr Mike Brumm, Brumm Swine Consultancy Commentary: Dr Mike Brumm on latest Hogs and Pigs Report With profits returning to US pork producers, the pace of decline in the breeding herd has slowed, as expected, writes Dr Mike Brumm.

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc Market Preview: Few Surprises in Hogs & Pigs Report Economist Steve Meyer writes, "Friday’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report was pretty much as expected. Table 1 contains the key data from the report, the average pre-report estimates of market analysts, and the differences between the numbers."

Jim Long Pork Commentary: USDA Confirms No Expansion The USDA released the 1 September Hogs and Pigs Report last Friday. It confirmed what most rational people would have surmised – NO EXPANSION!, writes Jim Long.

Chris Hurt, Purdue University Hogs - Saved By Corn Alarm Bell Chris Hurt comments on the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report.

More to follow soon...

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In The News - What The Media Says

• Hog Inventories Close to Analysts' Predictions - CME
• September Hogs & Pigs Report Found to be Encouraging - AgEBB

More to follow soon.....

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Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of 1 September Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, September 2010 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 2010