Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

USDA Quarterly Report: September 2006 What It All Means - Expert Commentary In The News - What The Media Says Graph Data From The Report Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: September 2006

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2006 was 62.7 million head. This was up 1 percent from September 1, 2005 and up 2 percent from June 1, 2006.

Breeding inventory, at 6.08 million head, was up 2 percent from last year and up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 56.6 million head, was up 1 percent from last year and up 2 percent from last quarter.

The June-August 2006 pig crop, at 26.7 million head, was up 1 percent from 2005 and up 2 percent from 2004.

Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.92 million head, up slightly from 2005 and up 1 percent from 2004. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.

The average pigs saved per litter was 9.14 for the June-August 2006 period, compared to 9.06 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.70 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.20 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.92 million sows farrow during the September-November 2006 quarter, up 1 percent from the actual farrowings in both 2005 and 2004. Intended farrowings for December 2006-February 2007, at 2.90 million sows, are up 2 percent from both 2006 and 2005.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 39 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, unchanged from last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2005 through June 2006 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, a small adjustment of less than one-half of one percent was made to the March 2006 inventory along with an adjustment of slightly larger than one-half of one percent to the June 2006 total inventory.

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What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes Hogs and Pigs Report - September 2006 The September Hogs and Pigs report came in a little more bearish than the trade reports but close to our estimates. The total number of hogs and pigs on U.S. farms September 1 was up 1.4% from 2005. The breeding herd was up 1.8% and the market herd was up 1.3% from 12 months earlier. The June-August farrowings were up 0.2% but the pig crop was up 1.1% due to the record high litter size of 9.14 pigs per litter. Continue reading this report here

Professor Mike Brumm, University of Nebraska June 2006 USDA Hogs and Pigs Report Commentary The USDA September 1, 2006 Hogs and Pigs report released on September 29 documented the continued slow but steady growth in the US industry. Of interest to many industry observers is the relative location for this growth. Looking first at the breeding herd, growth (relative to September 2005 inventory) occurred in all states east of the Mississipi River except for North Carolina where a statewide moratorium has created an artificial cap on the structure of the industry. West of the Mississippi river, growth occurred in Missouri (up 4%), Kansas (up 6%) and South Dakota (up 11%). Continue reading this report here

Chris Hurt, Purdue University Hog Profits Threatened by Corn Profits “Not much change” is the theme of the latest Hogs and Pigs inventory report from USDA. Producers continue to avoid expansion in the face of strong profits over the past two years, reports Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University. The industry is expected to continue to operate at modest profits through the first-half of 2007, but the potential for higher corn prices appears to be the biggest threat to this thin profit potential. Continue reading this report here

Shane Ellis, Iowa State University September Hog and Pig Report US pork producers continue to build swine inventories. For the past six years, there has been a year over year increase in September total swine inventories, while the swine breeding herd has increased for the past three years. Currently there are 62.7 million head of swine nationally, up 1.4 percent from a year ago. The swine breeding herd inventory numbered just over 6 million head, an increase of almost 2 percent since last September. Breeding herd numbers have been below 6 million head since 2002. Market hog inventories have increased 1.3 percent to over 56.6 million head. Continue reading this report here

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In The News - What The Media Says

• Iowa's hog population reaches 51-year high - Sioux City Journal
• No Significant Expansion of U.S. Breeding Herd - Jim Long
• Hog profits continue despite larger herds - Des Moines Register

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Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of September 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF

Source: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, September 2006 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service