Weekly pig report: Cash hog index trends higher, supporting futures outlook
Steady gains in the cash market are reinforcing bullish expectations and giving producers leverage as packer bids improve
By: February lean hog futures on Wednesday closed steady at $87.85. Hog futures saw a pause after hitting a 3.5-month high on Tuesday. The premium futures hold to the cash hog and CME index suggest futures traders look for a higher cash hog market in the coming weeks. The latest CME lean hog index is up 27 cents at $82.03. Thursday’s projected cash index price is up another 37 cents at $82.40. Tuesday afternoon’s five-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $79.74.
Smithfield Foods says it will acquire Nathan’s Famous
The deal is reportedly valued at about $450 million, securing the rights to a key product in its business’s largest segment, reported Bloomberg. The acquisition will secure Smithfield’s rights to this iconic brand into perpetuity", as the company already held an exclusive license to make and sell Nathan’s Famous products that expires in 2032. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026 and provide annual cost synergies of about $9 million within two years of closing, said the report. Smithfield’s packaged meats segment is its biggest in terms of revenue, followed closely by its fresh pork business. Nathan’s Famous, the roughly 110-year-old company best known for hosting the famed Coney Island hot dog eating contest on the Fourth of July, began selling its products in supermarkets in 1983.
China keeps pork tariffs intact despite Canada/China trade reset
Recent agreement slashes duties on canola and eases EV tensions, but Beijing leaves 25% levy on Canadian pork untouched amid lingering trade retaliation
China’s recent agreement with Canada to reset strained trade relations did not include any reduction in tariffs on Canadian pork, leaving a key livestock sector excluded from the initial round of concessions even as other agricultural exports gained relief.
Under the deal, Beijing agreed to roll back punitive duties on Canadian canola seed, cutting tariffs that had reached roughly 84% to about 15%, while Ottawa moved to ease its hard line on Chinese electric vehicles. Those steps marked a significant thaw after months of escalating trade tension between China and Canada — but pork was notably absent.
Why pork was left out. China’s 25% tariff on Canadian pork, imposed in 2025, remains in force. The duty was introduced as part of a broader retaliatory package after Canada levied tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum. Because the pork tariff is explicitly retaliatory, it has proven harder to unwind than product-specific disputes like canola, where China framed the issue around anti-dumping and quality concerns.
Major China hog producer may list shares in Hong Kong stock market
Muyuan Foods Co., one of the world’s biggest pig breeders and pork producers, has started gauging investor interest for a Hong Kong listing that may raise as much as $1.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. The Chinese company, whose shares are already traded in Shenzhen, may list its shares in Hong Kong as early as February, the people said, asking not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. Deliberations are ongoing, and the size and timing of the deal may change, the people added. Muyuan didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from Bloomberg.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
February lean hog futures--$86.00 to $90.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
March soybean meal futures--$288.40 to $306.90, and with a sideways-higher bias
March corn futures--$4.17 1/4 to $4.30 and a sideways-lower bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
23 January 2026
3
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22 January 2026
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