FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook: World Meat

Pork trade and pork production will increase annually by 2.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively, over the next 10 years, according to the latest Agricultural Outlook from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
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World Pork

Recovering from a 12 per cent drop in 2009, pork trade grows by 2.8 per cent (122,000 metric tonnes) annually in the next decade, reaching 5.52 million metric tonnes in 2019. Pork production increases in the next decade at a rate of 1.9 per cent (1.85 million metric tonnes), reaching 115.46 million metric tonnes in 2019.

The EU loses 7.0 percentage points of market share, dropping from 30.3 per cent to 23.3 per cent. Also, the long-term competitiveness of the EU is not very promising, given its appreciating currency and strict animal welfare and environmental regulations. Canada's market share decreases by 6.4 percentage points, while the US gains 13.2 percentage points. Despite SPS challenges, Brazil's long-term prospects are good, with new investments to improve infrastructure and raise productivity. Brazil's market share grows by 4.4 percentage points.

Hog inventory in Canada has declined since 2006. It begins to grow in 2011. A shrinking herd and lower industry returns cause lower production in the short run. Canada's exports of live hogs to the US decline at 0.8 per cent, reaching 5.93 million head in 2019, partly because of uncertainty about country-of-origin labelling (COOL). Pork net exports decline in the short run and stay at around 0.9 million metric tonnes over the baseline.

Brazil's pork exports grow by 9.0 per cent annually, reaching 1.1 million metric tonnes in 2019. Improvement in productivity, favourable domestic policies and a weakening currency improve Brazil's competitiveness in the world pork market.

Stimulated by increased export refunds, the EU's net exports jumped by 17.9 per cent in 2008 but they decline after that and end at 1.2 million metric tonnes in 2019. Strict environmental regulations and animal welfare requirements limit the EU's long-term capability. Production is stable over the projection period, compared to the 0.2 per cent growth in consumption.

Taiwan's pork production declined 11.7 per cent between 1997 and 2008. Constrained by environmental pressures and high feed costs, production increases at 0.5 per cent, which boosts net imports by 16 per cent per year over the next decade.

Recovery in the beef and poultry sectors impacts Japan's pork sector. Consumption increases slightly, at 0.5 per cent, over the next decade, and production also increases, at 1.1 per cent. As a result, net imports decline in the short run but turn around in 2013 and reach 1.2 million metric tonnes in 2019.

Consumption recovery boosted China's net imports in 2008, with domestic production and consumption increasing four per cent and five per cent, respectively. Over the next decade, production grows at 2.8 per cent, falling slightly short of the 3.0 per cent growth in consumption. China's exports have continued to decline, and the country becomes a net importer in 2014, as growth in imports exceeds growth in exports. Net imports expand to 138,000 metric tonnes in 2019.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.

November 2010
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