Pig outlook - Lean hog futures bears in control
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
17 October 2025
3 minute read
By: The lean hog futures market on Wednesday saw some short covering after hitting a seven-week low Tuesday. Gains will continue to be limited by the still-bearish near-term technical posture and falling cash hog prices. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 79 cents at $97.20. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $95.95.
Pork Industry and related news
Gregg Doud Warns of “Much Bigger Game” in U.S.-China Farm Trade Showdown
Former USTR ag negotiator tells AgriTalk the farm economy is collateral in global power struggle
In an AgriTalk interview with Chip Flory, former U.S. Chief Agricultural Negotiator Gregg Doud — now President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation — warned that American agriculture is being pulled into a “much bigger game” as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping edge toward a critical meeting later this month.
Speaking as markets reacted to uncertainty over whether the Trump/Xi summit will proceed, Doud said the agricultural sector is caught between national security tensions and shifting global supply chains, with little room to maneuver.
“Agriculture Is Caught Up in a Much Bigger Situation”
Doud opened by noting that China’s recent export controls on rare earths and Washington’s restrictions on semiconductor shipments have turned trade into a geopolitical contest with ripple effects far beyond tariffs and quotas.
“China wants chips, and we want rare earths,” he said. “They’ve decided to up the ante … signaling that they’re not just going to let everybody and anybody in the world have these.”
He pointed out that Beijing’s moves are timed with domestic politics in mind. “Next week is China’s Fourth Plenary Session,” Doud said. “All politics is local — China has their politics, and we have ours. President Xi is trying to show he’s large and in charge.”
But Doud also suggested Xi’s assertiveness masks weakness at home: “The Chinese economy has struggled since Covid. They never really came back. What President Trump has done with tariffs has hurt them economically.”
JBS breaks ground on $135 million sausage plant in Perry, Iowa
New facility to employ up to 500 workers and strengthen Iowa’s role in U.S. protein supply chain
JBS USA officially broke ground Tuesday on a $135 million sausage processing plant in Perry, Iowa, marking a major expansion of the meatpacking giant’s Midwest operations. The project, which broke ground on Oct. 14, will occupy roughly 110 acres on Perry’s southeast side and is expected to begin operations by fall 2026, according to the Iowa Capital Dispatch.
The facility will initially employ about 250 workers on a single shift and later expand to two shifts with around 500 employees. Once fully operational, the plant will be capable of processing roughly 500,000 sows annually and producing more than 130 million pounds of sausage each year.
Part of the Perry plant’s output will supply JBS’s Ankeny, Iowa, facility, which was recently acquired and converted to produce fully cooked bacon and sausage. Together, the two sites will expand JBS’s value-added meat production network and deepen its investment footprint in Iowa, where it already operates major plants in Council Bluffs, Marshalltown, and Ottumwa.
The project received $12 million in tax incentives from the Iowa Economic Development Authority, which praised the initiative as an economic boost to the Perry region. State officials said the investment comes at a critical moment, following the closure of a Tyson pork plant in Perry in 2024 that displaced more than 1,300 workers.
Governor Kim Reynolds called JBS’s investment “a strong vote of confidence in Iowa’s workforce and its leadership in U.S. food production.”
Construction is expected to accelerate through 2025, with JBS saying the facility will help meet rising domestic demand for processed meat products amid changing consumer habits and ongoing trade disruptions.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
December lean hog futures--$81.00 to $85.50 and with a sideways-lower bias
December soybean meal futures--$270.10 to $282.00, and with a sideways bias
December corn futures--$4.09 1/4 to $4.24 1/2 and a sideways bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
