5 October 2025

3 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

More profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculative traders was featured in lean hog futures trading Wednesday, which marked the third straight session of price losses and suggests the bulls are now exhausted and that a market top may be in place. Risk aversion was keener in the general marketplace Wednesday amid the U.S. government shutdown and following a very weak monthly ADP jobs report. Still, futures’ discounts to the cash hog index may limit further selling pressure in hog futures. Cash and fresh pork fundamentals are weakening. The latest CME lean hog index is down 5 cents at $104.73. Today’s projected cash hog index is down 47 cents at $104.26. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $102.43.

NPPC urges action on China’s barriers to U.S. pork trade

Despite trade commitments, China’s restrictions threaten over $1.1 billion in U.S. pork exports

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) submitted comments to the U.S. Trade Representative outlining how China’s trade practices continue to unfairly restrict U.S. pork exports. These measures, including tariffs, subsidies, and unjustified sanitary barriers, violate China’s World Trade Organization commitments and persist despite promises made under the 2020 Phase One trade deal.

NPPC highlighted specific issues such as China’s ban on pork from plants not reapproved for export, mandatory testing for the feed additive ractopamine (despite international safety standards), and increased inspections linked to animal diseases already present in China.

With China being the third-largest value market for U.S. pork — accounting for $1.1 billion in exports and 59% of pork variety meat sales — NPPC emphasized the lack of viable alternatives and urged stronger enforcement of trade rules to protect U.S. pork producers.

China’s pork prices slide

Golden Week holiday boost muted as oversupply and weak demand weigh

China’s pork prices have fallen to fresh lows ahead of the Golden Week holiday, with a bleak demand outlook offering little relief to a sector already struggling with excess supply and sluggish consumption, Bloomberg reported.

Wholesale pork prices are on track to hit their lowest level in 18 months, signaling that recent government efforts to curb production have yet to stabilize the market. Despite expectations that millions of Chinese consumers will travel, shop, and dine during the eight-day holiday starting Wednesday, wholesalers and retailers have refrained from the large-scale stockpiling typically seen during this period.

Beijing has been pressing major pig producers to cut capacity to help support prices. Pork, a staple in Chinese diets, is also a key component of the consumer price index, making the industry’s weakness central to broader efforts to combat deflationary pressures. “Pork consumption improved a little in September, but hog supplies have remained ample… it will therefore be difficult for prices to rebound significantly in the fourth quarter,” Guangda Futures noted. Government data show sow herds remained elevated at 40.38 million heads in August, virtually unchanged from the prior month.

China’s most-traded pig futures continued to slide after a 3% drop on Monday. Pork prices have plunged 21% over the past year, leaving farmers with average losses of about 162 yuan ($23) per pig, Bloomberg reported. Analysts at Mysteel suggested downstream demand could gradually improve with holiday dining, but time is running short for the sector to see meaningful relief.

Latest USDA cold storage report details

Frozen U.S. beef supplies totaled 393.8 million lbs. at the end of August, down 4.0 million lbs. (1%) from July, but up (1.5%) from year-ago, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report that was released Friday afternoon. The report showed 393.9 million lbs. of pork in frozen storage at the end of August, down 10.7 million lbs. (2.7%) from July and 61.4 million lbs. (13.5%) from August 2024. Pork bellies declined 25% from last month and 8.5% from year-ago. Total frozen poultry supplies on August 31 were down slightly from the previous month and from year-ago. Total stocks of chickens were down 2% from the previous month but up 4% from last year. Total pounds of turkeys in freezers were up 3% from last month, but down 8% from Aug. 31, 2024.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

• December lean hog futures--$85.00 to $90.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
• December soybean meal futures--$260.00 to $280.00, and with a sideways bias
• December corn futures--$4.10 1/2 to $4.25 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures