Pig outlook: Lean hog futures remain powerful

Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news

26 September 2025

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

The lean hog futures market Wednesday saw routine profit-taking after prices hit a contract a high Tuesday. The hog futures bulls remain technically strong amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. That means the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher. The latest CME lean hog index is up 10 cents at $105.00. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $105.47. Hog futures traders are awaiting this afternoon’s USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net US sales of 29,400 MT for 2025 were up 34 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (10,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (4,900 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,600 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for Panama (100 MT). Total net sales of 200 MT for 2026 were for South Korea. Exports of 29,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,100 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), China (2,800 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT), and Colombia (1,900 MT).

California’s Prop 12 challenged by Triumph Foods

Triumph Foods has filed a new lawsuit challenging California’s Proposition 12, which restricts the sale of pork and eggs from animals not housed under standards set by activist-backed measures. The pork processor contends that Prop 12 unlawfully overrides federal oversight, noting USDA already regulates inspection and compliance at meat and poultry plants.

“Congress has already acted and regulates pork production in our country,” said Triumph CEO Matt England, warning against a “patchwork of interfering state requirements.”

The case builds on Triumph’s earlier success in weakening Massachusetts’ Question 3 law under the Dormant Commerce Clause and expands Prop 12 challenges beyond pork to eggs, an issue previously raised by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The Supreme Court has so far declined to hear other Prop 12 challenges, including those brought by the Iowa Pork Producers Association and the National Pork Producers Council. Triumph points to past precedent, such as the 2011 National Meat Association v. Harris ruling, which affirmed that Congress—not individual states—holds authority over national food supply regulation.

Meanwhile, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has submitted comments to the Justice Department in response to a request from DOJ’s Office of Legal Policy for information that can help identify state laws that have out-of-state economic impacts. “NPPC singled out California Proposition 12 and Massachusetts Question 3, both of which ban in the state the sale of pork from hogs born to sows raised in housing that doesn’t meet their arbitrary standards,” the group said in a news release.

“San Francisco’s 2017 Antibiotic Use in Food Animals Ordinance, for example, requires larger grocery retailers in the city to report detailed information about the use of antibiotics in meat and poultry products,” NPPC added. “It imposes significant reporting mandates on retailers that inevitably shift responsibility to producers, most of whom have no connection to San Francisco. In Chicago, to ensure that 'institutional food purchasing advances an equitable, healthy, fair, local, humane, and sustainable food system,’ pork was eliminated from the city school system’s menu.”

ADM shifts US feed mills into joint venture with Alltech

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is transferring its 11 U.S. feed mills into a new joint venture with Alltech, the agricultural products developer. Alltech will contribute 18 U.S. mills and 15 Canadian mills to the partnership, becoming the majority owner. Governance will be shared, with equal representation on a board of directors overseeing the venture.

The deal does not include ADM’s feed operations in Mexico or other regions, and the company will retain its U.S. premix and additives businesses. ADM emphasized the move as part of a broader effort to trim $500 million to $700 million in costs over five years.

Timeline: The companies expect the transaction to close and the new partnership to launch in the first quarter of 2026.