Pig outlook—Sept. 4: Lean hog futures bulls remain in command
6 September 2025
5 minute read
By: The lean hog futures market at mid-week saw routine profit taking from the speculators after prices Tuesday hit a nine-week high. Cash hog market fundamentals are weakening a bit late this summer, but the technical posture for October lean hogs remains firmly bullish. The latest CME lean hog index (Aug. 29) is down 25 cents to $105.92. Thursday’s projected CME cash index price (for Sept. 2) is unchanged at $105.92. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $105.75.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
Meat prices buck seasonal trends after Labor Day
Supply cuts drive beef and pork prices higher despite normal demand slowdown
Meat prices are moving differently than usual as the summer grilling season winds down, according to Southern Ag Today (SAT). The report noted that “less production combined with good meat demand is certainly pressuring prices higher,” with supply constraints now outweighing the normal seasonal dip that follows Labor Day.
Pork: Lower production trumps seasonality. Wholesale pork prices usually peak in summer and taper off in the fall, but this year production remains below last year. SAT wrote, “It looks like more pigs per litter are not making up for fewer sows.” All pork primals are running above 2024 levels. Loins and butts are easing seasonally, but ribs, bellies, and hams have surged, underscoring pork’s volatility.
Outlook. With beef and pork both showing supply-driven strength, SAT said it will turn next to poultry, especially as Thanksgiving approaches. For now, the conclusion is clear: “tighter supplies are going to outweigh seasonal patterns this Fall.”
US EPA Imposes No Additional Wastewater Discharge Regs on Meat & Poultry Processing Facilities
In Sleepy Eye, Minnesota, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the agency’s final decision: no additional wastewater discharge regulations will be imposed on meat and poultry processing facilities. This move, part of the administration’s Powering the Great American Comeback initiative, is positioned as a measure to reduce consumer prices and alleviate burdens on American farmers—citing potential savings in the billions. Zeldin emphasized that the action would protect both human health and the environment. Link to EPA announcement.
Strong ag industry and political support:
Support from agriculture leaders. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins applauded the rollback, saying it protects small and mid-sized processors from “costly and burdensome” red tape that could have forced closures. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall added that heavy-handed regulations would have “ultimately hurt the farmers raising the meat and poultry we enjoy.”
Ag industry reaction
• Meat Institute CEO Julie Anna Potts: “This important decision ends a regulatory disaster that would have forced facilities to close, causing food prices to go up.”
• National Pork Producers Council President Duane Stateler: “EPA’s action today will save nearly 100 local meat processors and the thousands of family farmers who rely on them.”
• NCBA President Buck Wehrbein: Said the rollback helps small and regional meat processors who were already struggling with resource-intensive standards.
• National Chicken Council’s Ashley Peterson: Praised EPA for recognizing existing oversight while faulting the prior administration for a rushed rulemaking process.
• U.S. Poultry & Egg Association’s Nath Morris: Welcomed EPA’s commitment to properly evaluate future regulations.
• National Turkey Federation CEO Leslee Oden: Called the move proof that “current Clean Water Act arrangements are working for turkey processors, the environment, and local communities.”
Opposition: Environmental & public health concerns. Environmental organizations and attorneys general voiced sharp criticism of the rollback:
• Forty-five environmental, community, and animal welfare groups — including Earthjustice, Environmental Integrity Project, Food & Water Watch, Center for Biological Diversity, and Waterkeepers — warned that the EPA’s decision neglects “modern pollution controls” and fails to protect under resourced communities facing disproportionate harm from nutrient pollution (nitrogen and phosphorus). They urged stricter standards. “Slaughterhouses have spent decades polluting our nation’s waters with abandon… EPA must seize this opportunity to rein in this dirty industry by enacting the most environmentally protective regulatory option without further delay.” – Food & Water Watch
• Earthjustice and the Environmental Integrity Project filed lawsuits, arguing that the decision to refrain from updating outdated standards allows meat and poultry plants to continue polluting waterways unchecked.
• A coalition of state attorneys general, led by California’s Rob Bonta, expressed support for the originally proposed rule. They urged the EPA to adopt the strongest option offered and provide federal assistance to help facilities comply — and warned that weak standards harm environmental justice communities.
USDA reports on Mexico livestock industry
The Mexican pig crop is forecast to increase to 21.1 million head in 2026, a two percent increase. A primary factor for the increase is investments in improved genetics and biosecurity in recent years. Slaughter and pork production are forecast to rise to 19.0 million head and 1.5 MMT CWE, respectively. Growing household and commercial demand are key contributors to increased slaughter and pork production.
Consumption is projected to rise four percent to 2.8 MMT CWE, while imports are expected to increase to1.6 MMT CWE, an increase of three percent. Meanwhile, exports are forecast at 210,000 MT CWE, a decline of 3 percent, due to lost market share to competitors in Asia.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
October lean hog futures--$92.00 to $97.05 and with a sideways bias
December soybean meal futures--$272.60 to $295.00, and with a sideways-lower bias
December corn futures--$4.03 1/2 to $4.24 1/4 and a sideways bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
