Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes: USDA Quarterly report
What it all means Will be updated as commentary appears
Graph data from the report For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full report in PDF format Click Here

USDA APRIL 2001 REPORT

Retail Pork Prices

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2001, was 59.1 million head. This was slightly below June 2000, but 1 percent above March 1, 2001.

Breeding inventory, at 6.20 million head, was down 1 percent from June 1, 2000, and down 1 percent from March 1, 2001. Market hog inventory, at 52.9 million head, was slightly below last year, but 1 percent above last quarter.

The March-May 2001 U.S. pig crop, at 25.5 million head, was slightly less than 2000, and 3 percent less than 1999. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.88 million head, slightly below last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 46 percent of the breeding herd.



The average pigs per litter was 8.88 pigs saved per litter for the March-May 2001 period, compared to 8.86 pigs last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.60 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 9.00 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.



U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.92 million sows farrow during the June-August 2001 quarter, 1 percent above the actual farrowings during the same period in 2000, and slightly above 1999. Intended farrowings for September-November, at 2.91 million sows, are 2 percent above the same period in both 2000 and 1999.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 35 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 32 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2000 through March 2001 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, import, and export data in U.S. level balance sheets. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one half percent were made to the inventory level for June 1, 2000, September 1, 2000, December 1, 2000 and March 1, 2001. A small adjustment of less than one half percent was made to the December 2000-February 2001 pig crop.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS?

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data (note most of these articles are also accessible individually in the news section):

Report shows changing structure of pig industry (Agriculture Online - 3rd July 2001)
Friday's Hogs and Pigs report documents the ongoing changing structure of the industry in the US, says Dr. Mike Brumm, University of Nebraska economist. The report suggests minimal growth in the US, he notes.

Hogs & Pigs Report Gets Bullish Read (AgWeb - 29 June 2001)
The Hogs & Pigs Report will set the tone for the summer, and the outlook is more favorable than previously expected.

Retail pork prices reach record US high (thePigSite.com.com - 29 June 2001)
Ron Plain touches on the June report in his Hog report for 29th June 2001.

NOTE: As and when new commentary is written we will add the links here.

GRAPH DATA FROM THE REPORT

To view the data table see the PDF Report (link at top of page)

Reliability of June 2001 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of 13,000 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 10,700 operations, 82 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of June by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of June 1.

Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 59.1 million head by more than 1.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent.