Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: June 2005

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2005 was 60.8 million head. This was up slightly from June 1, 2004, and up 2 percent from March 1, 2005.

Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was up 1 percent from both June 1, 2004 and last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 54.8 million head, was up slightly from last year, and up 2 percent from last quarter.

The March - May 2005 U.S. pig crop, at 25.9 million head, was up 1 percent from both 2004 and 2003. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.87 million head, unchanged from last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.02 for the March - May 2005 period, compared to 8.93 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 9.10 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: June 1

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.90 million sows farrow during the June-August 2005 quarter, virtually unchanged from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2004, but down one-half of one percent from 2003. Intended farrowings for September-November 2005, at 2.88 million sows, are unchanged from the same period in 2004, but up 1 percent from 2003.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 40 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 38 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2004 through March 2005 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, an adjustment of less than one-half of one percent was made to the December 1, 2004 total inventory. The September-November 2004 pig crop was adjusted by one percent.

What it all means?

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Professor Mike Brumm, University of Nebraska June 2005 USDA Hogs and Pigs Report Commentary The gradual restructuring of the US Swine industry continues. Included in this month’s commentary is a look back to the inventories reported in the June 1, 1995 USDA Hogs and Pigs report. In addition to the state by state changes that many are increasingly familiar with, the major change is 1,268,000 fewer animals in the US breeding herd and 1,919,000 more pigs in the kept for market inventory in 2005 versus 1995. While some of the increase in the kept for market category is due to improved reproductive efficiencies in the US herd (for example - 8.29 pigs/litter vs 8.98 pigs/litter for Dec to May period of 1995 vs 2005), one can’t overlook the influence of the growth of the Canadian breeding herd and the transfer of Canadian feeder pigs to US producers for growth to slaughter. For the first 5 months of 2005, US producers were importing feeder pigs at the rate of 97,762 pigs per week, second only to the 110,890 weekly pace of 2004. Continue reading this report here

Chris Hurt, Purdue University Chris Hurt After a year of profitability, the expectation was that some expansion was underway. However, the June Hogs and Pigs report showed the U.S. breeding herd is expanding less than 1 percent and producers indicated that summer and fall farrowings will be unchanged from last year's level. Pork supplies will, however, be larger in the next 12 months as a result of a higher weaning rate and a modest increase in weights. Supplies are expected to increase only about 1 percent, which means the amount of pork per person will be nearly unchanged. Continue reading this report here

Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes Hogs and Pigs Report - June 2005 The June 1 Hogs and Pigs report came in close to trade expectations. The total herd was up 0.2%, the breeding herd was up 0.7%, and the market herd was up 0.1% compared to 12 months earlier. The breeding herd was close to our sow and gilt slaughter estimate. The key to what hog prices will occur through the remainder of the year will be what happens to demand. We are assuming that by the fourth quarter of 2005, half of the demand growth of 2004 will have been lost. Demand at the consumer level for the first 5 months of 2005 was down 2.8%. However, live hog demand for these 5 months was up 2.4% compared to 12 months earlier. Calculating monthly demand is not very precise but it looks like demand for live hogs in May was down some from 2004. Continue reading this report here

Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics No Surprises in Pig Crop Report The USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, released on Friday afternoon, was about as close to the expectations of market analysts as any I can remember, says Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D., Paragon Economics, Inc. The only numbers among USDA's inventory estimates that differ from pre-report estimates by over 1% are those for pigs weighing less than 120 lb. The under 60-lb. inventories, at 99.7%, are somewhat at odds with the March-May pig crop estimate of 101% of last year, but that difference is not big enough to get too riled up about. Continue reading this report here

Graph Data from the Report

US Quarterly Litter Rate: March - May

US Pigs Per Litter
By Size of Operation: Mar - May 2005

US Quarterly Sows Farrowed
March - May

US Quarterly Pig Crop: March - May

March 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)

June 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)

September 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)

December 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)

Reliability of June 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 10,600 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 8,500 operations, 81 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of June by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of June 1.

Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 9 out of 10 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 60.8 million head by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent.