Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

USDA Quarterly Report: September 2008 What It All Means - Expert Commentary In The News - What The Media Says Graph Data From The Report Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 21 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: September 2008

U.S. Hog Inventory up 2 Percent

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2008 was 68.7 million head. This was up 2 percent from September 1, 2007 and up 1 percent from June 1, 2008.

Breeding inventory, at 6.05 million head, was down 3 percent from last year and down 1 percent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 62.6 million head, was up 3 percent from last year and up 2 percent from last quarter.

The June-August 2008 pig crop, at 29.3 million head, was up 1 percent from 2007 and up 10 percent from 2006. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.08 million head, down 2 percent from 2007 but up 6 percent from 2006. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 51 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.51 for the June-August 2008 period, compared to 9.29 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.80 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.60 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory September 1

U.S. hog producers intend to have 3.01 million sows farrow during the September-November 2008 quarter, down 5 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2007, but up 2 percent from 2006. Intended farrowings for December 2008-February 2009, at 2.98 million sows, are down 3 percent from 2008 but up 3 percent from 2007.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 43 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 40 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2007 through June 2008 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, adjustments of less than one half of one percent were made to the June 2008, March 2008, December 2007 and September 2007 total inventory and December 2007-February 2008 pig crop.

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What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes Grimes & Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs inventory report came in very close to trade estimates, write Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Dr Mike Brumm, Brumm Swine Consultancy Commentary: Dr Mike Brumm on latest Hogs and Pigs Report Corn and soybeans are the fuel for pig growth. In spite of record high costs for these inputs, few alternatives are as readily available to the US production system.

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc Positive Outlook - But Not Resoundingly So USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, released last Friday, indicates ample supplies of market hogs in the short term, moderate supplies late this fall, and then some reductions in the second quarter of 2009 and beyond, reports economist, Steve Meyer.

Jim Long Pork Commentary: Hogs and Pigs Report Confirms Liquidation The liquidation of U.S. breeding herd is real. Since December 1, 2007 (39 weeks) the U.S. breeding herd has declined 172,000 (Dec: 6.221 million; Sept: 6.049 million), which is an average decline of 4,400 sows per week, writes Jim Long.

Chris Hurt, Purdue University Weekly Outlook: Uncertainty for Pork Industry Chris Hurt comments on the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report

Professor John Lawrence & Shane Ellis, Iowa State University John Lawrence and Shane Ellis on the September 2008 Hog and Pig Report The much anticipated USDA September Hog and Pig report, released on September 26th, indicated that the swine industry has accelerated its reduction in production potential, write John Lawrence and Shane Ellis.

More to follow soon...

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In The News - What The Media Says

• CME: Hogs & Pigs Report Close to Expectations - CME
• Iowa, US Hog Inventories Continue to Grow - IPPA
• Weekly Review: High Trimming Prices Affect Sales - AgEBB
• CME: Seasonal Pattern for Hog Slaughter this Fall - CME
• Weekly Review: Cutout Prices Lowered Yet Again - AgEBB
• Market Preview: Economic Uncertainty Spills Over All - National Hog Farmer

More to follow soon...

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Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of September 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, September 2008 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 2008