Trends shaping productivity, health and the future workforce
Swine industry outlook 2026
28 January 2026
5 minute read
By: Key takeaways
- Improved markets are helping boost optimism in the swine industry in 2026.
- The United States and Brazil are competing for key pork export markets.
- Disease challenges can be diminished with systematic and strategic approaches.
Favorable market conditions and innovative approaches to long-standing challenges are helping the U.S. swine industry enter 2026 with renewed optimism. Dr. Derald Holtkamp, professor of swine production medicine, Iowa State University, said strong pork prices combined with lower feed costs are creating the best economic environment pork producers have seen in recent years, which should help them recover equity lost during the challenging 2022-24 period.
“Markets are probably the biggest source of optimism for livestock producers in general right now,” Holtkamp said. “If you’re a livestock producer, you’re looking at some pretty good times ahead.”
U.S. productivity vs. global export competitors
While current market conditions have provided needed optimism in the market, Holtkamp explained that there is room for improvement in U.S. productivity. According to benchmarking data collected through InterPIG — a global swine benchmarking project that analyzes production and financial data from major exporting countries, including Brazil, Spain, Japan and China — researchers have identified key areas where American producers can enhance their competitive position.
“The battle in the next decade for supremacy in the world markets for pork is going to come down to the U.S. and Brazil,” he continued.
Regions like Mato Grosso and Santa Catarina in Brazil are demonstrating significant productivity advantages due in part to more-favorable seasonality and lower labor costs. This improved productivity has helped Brazilian producers lower mortality rates compared with the U.S. herd, which in turn has created an estimated $30-per-pig-marketed advantage.
“A big part of this advantage is that Brazil does not have the PRRSV (porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus) or PEDV (porcine epidemic diarrhea virus),” Holtkamp said. “About one-third of the cost of that productivity gap between the U.S. and Brazil is due to PRRS.
“The battle comes down to productivity ... and that will be defined by how well we do or do not manage health in the U.S.”
In addition to focusing on mortality rates from birth to market, productivity metrics show that improving reproductive performance will help U.S. producers become more competitive in the global market.
Takeaway: Can we chip away at the $30-per-pig-marketed advantage to be more competitive against Brazil? Battle comes down to productivity, and what will define the next 10 years — how well we manage animal health in the United States.
The health-productivity connection
The economic impact of disease challenges like PRRS and PED continues to affect pork industry profitability.
PRRS is said to cost the U.S. pork industry at least $1.2 billion annually.1 With no specific treatment or cure for PRRS, managing respiratory and reproductive forms of the disease is vital.
“Just as we think we’re learning more about PRRS, it throws something new at us,” he said. While PRRSV lineage 1C.5 continues to dominate, new equally virulent isolates are emerging. This is PRRSV's superpower. Holtkamp explains this is one reason the industry is seeing PRRS pop up at atypical times of year. Adoption of a standardized lineage system and genome sequencing is increasing the speed at which we are learning about the PRRSV.
Although PEDV positivity was at low levels in 2024, risks remain. Environmental contamination is a key concern. A moderate uptick in cases in wean-to-finish pigs in September 2025 reinforces the importance of biosecurity, because the virus is easily carried on contaminated fomites, such as boots and coveralls.
Takeaway: Swine health issues continue to evolve and impact industry profitability. Staying on top of outbreaks and maintaining biosecurity are vital to minimizing production losses.
Biosecurity 2.0: Strengthening defenses
Protecting the swine herd from foreign animal disease and reducing endemic disease outbreaks are key opportunities for U.S. pork producers.
One way to do this, Holtkamp emphasized, is by having a “comprehensive and systemic way” to identify biosecurity hazards, such as applying a hazard analysis and critical control points approach. Rather than taking a “ready, fire, aim” approach to biosecurity, he recommended being more systematic in monitoring and measurement.
“It’s important to identify the problems and take the time to figure out where our biggest biosecurity gaps and problems come from,” he said. “Only after we do that can we efficiently allocate our time and capital to putting biosecurity control measures in place.”
Taking advantage of outbreaks presents learning opportunities. Understand where hazards are by conducting an analysis. Gather information on the broader production process to analyze where the most significant biosecurity hazards are occurring. By taking a process approach, producers can better identify where to invest time and capital in putting better measures in place, Holtkamp said.
Technology will also enhance our ability to monitor these processes.
“We’re starting to get some technologies that really help with monitoring the herd,” Holtkamp continued. “You can’t control something if you can’t monitor it, so things like geofencing and use of video cameras are helping the industry to better monitor (and control) compliance with biosecurity hazards.”
Using improved technology while implementing a strategy to identify critical control points is a key strategy in improving herd health resilience. Using this information for future improvement on the farm will help improve swine health and productivity in the long term.
Takeaway: Having a systemic way of identifying, monitoring and measuring foreign and endemic disease outbreaks is a key strategy to improving herd health resilience. A disease occurrence provides a learning opportunity to assess biosecurity practices and identify areas of improvement.
Building the next generation of swine experts
Looking at the future of the swine industry in 2026 and beyond, Holtkamp believes early recruiting and training of the next generation of veterinarians and researchers is vital for the industry to thrive.
“I think a big part of the recruitment solution is to start exposing students to the industry earlier in their training,” he continued. “If we can get students to participate in a summer internship, that may help pique their interest in the industry.”
Industry collaboration with companies such as Zoetis also helps with the recruitment of individuals to the swine industry, Holtkamp added. Companies partnering with universities like Iowa State provides opportunities for students to discover if they like the swine industry or determine that it’s not for them.
“I think retention of young veterinarians is important as well,” he continued. “Having work-life balance is something that clinics or the companies that employ them should consider when thinking about the retention of swine veterinarians.”
Takeaway: Early recruiting and training of the next generation of swine industry professionals — as well as retention programs — are vital for the long-term future of the industry.
